Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Changchun UP Optotech Co.,Ltd. (002338.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.86 - $10.63$6.97
Multi-Stage$3.96 - $4.32$4.14
Blended Fair Value$5.56
Current Price$57.65
Upside-90.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.02%-6.71%0.070.040.050.080.050.050.030.110.090.15
YoY Growth--85.30%-19.82%-43.57%58.77%0.65%66.88%-72.94%26.81%-39.12%6.92%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.12%0.17%0.44%0.30%0.38%0.19%0.84%0.38%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.817.384.43
Cash Retained (M)40.4940.4940.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.81-7.38-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.6733.1036.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)235.12235.12235.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$4.86$6.97$10.63
Upside / Downside-91.57%-87.90%-81.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.0762.4666.0469.8273.8278.0580.39
Payout Ratio31.46%43.17%54.88%66.58%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.5926.9636.2446.4957.7970.2474.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)24.4924.7224.96
Year 2 PV (M)29.8930.4731.05
Year 3 PV (M)34.8335.8436.86
Year 4 PV (M)39.3340.8542.42
Year 5 PV (M)43.4145.5247.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)758.15795.04833.36
Equity Value (M)930.10972.441,016.36
Shares Outstanding (M)235.12235.12235.12
Fair Value$3.96$4.14$4.32
Upside / Downside-93.14%-92.83%-92.50%

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