Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (002311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$314.40 - $599.95$562.24
Multi-Stage$93.85 - $102.73$98.21
Blended Fair Value$330.23
Current Price$63.77
Upside417.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.81%13.37%0.680.710.450.490.460.430.340.340.280.21
YoY Growth---3.94%58.69%-8.99%6.78%7.79%24.50%0.55%23.51%33.98%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.60%0.77%0.90%0.59%1.06%1.20%1.41%1.67%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,984.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,038.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.52627.82376.69
Cash Retained (M)3,038.153,038.153,038.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.52-627.82-376.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,033.632,410.322,661.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$314.40$562.24$599.95
Upside / Downside393.02%781.67%840.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.605,349.075,696.766,067.056,461.416,881.407,087.84
Payout Ratio39.51%49.61%59.71%69.80%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,984.452,653.593,401.324,235.055,162.806,193.266,556.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,472.652,496.092,519.53
Year 2 PV (M)2,953.293,009.553,066.33
Year 3 PV (M)3,426.473,524.833,625.06
Year 4 PV (M)3,892.274,041.954,195.92
Year 5 PV (M)4,350.774,560.914,779.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)139,153.71145,874.88152,853.29
Equity Value (M)156,249.16163,508.22171,039.22
Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
Fair Value$93.85$98.21$102.73
Upside / Downside47.17%54.00%61.10%

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