Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002262.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$205.70 - $242.35$227.11
Multi-Stage$56.44 - $61.86$59.10
Blended Fair Value$143.11
Current Price$27.20
Upside426.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.23%33.49%0.320.200.200.100.100.080.060.050.040.02
YoY Growth--60.67%0.00%100.00%-1.13%32.13%20.56%37.82%13.92%72.75%30.91%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.90%0.76%0.80%0.68%0.67%0.48%0.31%0.29%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,229.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.90153.6992.21
Cash Retained (M)862.25862.25862.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.90-153.69-92.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)616.35708.56770.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.961,008.961,008.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.700.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.700.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$205.70$227.11$242.35
Upside / Downside656.24%734.98%790.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,229.501,309.421,394.531,485.181,581.721,684.531,735.06
Payout Ratio29.87%41.90%53.92%65.95%77.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.26548.60751.96979.451,233.331,516.081,604.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)516.37521.27526.16
Year 2 PV (M)666.21678.90691.71
Year 3 PV (M)816.78840.23864.12
Year 4 PV (M)968.081,005.311,043.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,120.111,174.221,230.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,857.6855,410.7258,061.48
Equity Value (M)56,945.2459,630.6562,417.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.961,008.961,008.96
Fair Value$56.44$59.10$61.86
Upside / Downside107.50%117.28%127.44%

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