Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.,Ltd. (002138.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.67 - $251.13$235.34
Multi-Stage$35.64 - $38.98$37.28
Blended Fair Value$136.31
Current Price$35.16
Upside287.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.94%15.35%0.450.310.410.270.250.230.210.240.220.02
YoY Growth--46.22%-24.55%52.62%7.52%10.83%6.51%-12.01%7.39%1,343.80%-85.70%
Dividend Yield--1.57%1.13%1.57%1.05%0.75%1.12%1.12%1.41%1.18%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)558.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.38123.3674.02
Cash Retained (M)428.25428.25428.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.38-123.36-74.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.87304.89354.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)781.54781.54781.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.67$235.34$251.13
Upside / Downside157.86%569.35%614.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.881,051.021,119.341,192.101,269.581,352.111,392.67
Payout Ratio56.61%63.28%69.96%76.64%83.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)558.63665.13783.13913.651,057.831,216.901,288.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)617.66623.51629.37
Year 2 PV (M)675.32688.18701.17
Year 3 PV (M)731.64752.64774.04
Year 4 PV (M)786.63816.88848.00
Year 5 PV (M)840.32880.91923.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,202.8925,371.9026,585.65
Equity Value (M)27,854.4529,134.0230,461.26
Shares Outstanding (M)781.54781.54781.54
Fair Value$35.64$37.28$38.98
Upside / Downside1.37%6.02%10.85%

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