Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation Limited (002128.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.85 - $152.05$84.99
Multi-Stage$36.25 - $39.66$37.92
Blended Fair Value$61.46
Current Price$22.57
Upside172.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.18%30.14%0.830.500.430.340.340.340.220.220.070.07
YoY Growth--64.93%16.65%25.00%0.00%0.00%56.76%0.00%200.00%0.00%23.19%
Dividend Yield--4.29%2.89%3.19%1.98%3.43%4.69%2.28%2.33%0.81%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,059.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,820.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,011.98632.49379.49
Cash Retained (M)4,820.134,820.134,820.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,011.98-632.49-379.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,808.154,187.644,440.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,238.682,238.682,238.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.701.871.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.701.871.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.85$84.99$152.05
Upside / Downside143.00%276.57%573.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,059.905,388.795,739.076,112.106,509.396,932.507,140.48
Payout Ratio4.74%21.79%38.84%55.90%72.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.771,174.272,229.243,416.394,748.456,239.256,604.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,067.411,077.531,087.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,841.971,877.061,912.47
Year 3 PV (M)2,566.012,639.672,714.72
Year 4 PV (M)3,241.953,366.623,494.86
Year 5 PV (M)3,872.134,059.164,253.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,567.8771,879.7275,318.33
Equity Value (M)81,157.3384,899.7588,781.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,238.682,238.682,238.68
Fair Value$36.25$37.92$39.66
Upside / Downside60.62%68.03%75.71%

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