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Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co., Ltd. (002091.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.37 - $120.16$112.60
Multi-Stage$18.88 - $20.65$19.75
Blended Fair Value$66.18
Current Price$9.14
Upside624.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.82%29.43%0.430.300.260.250.230.220.230.160.140.05
YoY Growth--43.94%14.55%2.73%10.79%1.81%-1.49%45.84%11.37%186.48%50.68%
Dividend Yield--5.64%4.14%3.17%2.59%3.44%3.89%3.29%1.99%1.39%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,153.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)737.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)415.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.67144.1786.50
Cash Retained (M)415.41415.41415.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.67-144.17-86.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)184.74271.25328.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,908.961,908.961,908.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.37$112.60$120.16
Upside / Downside560.52%1,131.99%1,214.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,153.351,228.321,308.161,393.191,483.751,580.191,627.60
Payout Ratio63.98%69.19%74.39%79.59%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)737.94849.82973.131,108.881,258.171,422.181,505.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)791.62799.12806.62
Year 2 PV (M)844.40860.48876.71
Year 3 PV (M)896.29922.02948.23
Year 4 PV (M)947.30983.731,021.20
Year 5 PV (M)997.451,045.621,095.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,570.0233,094.8634,678.06
Equity Value (M)36,047.0637,705.8339,426.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,908.961,908.961,908.96
Fair Value$18.88$19.75$20.65
Upside / Downside106.60%116.11%125.97%

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