Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel Co., Ltd. (002085.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.62 - $76.17$71.36
Multi-Stage$45.60 - $50.14$47.83
Blended Fair Value$59.60
Current Price$18.05
Upside230.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.17%10.51%0.250.100.140.100.200.310.310.090.020.04
YoY Growth--155.83%-30.43%43.75%-50.86%-35.72%0.00%260.00%300.00%-41.80%-59.86%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.61%2.29%2.32%3.71%4.75%3.74%0.70%0.12%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)818.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)360.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.77102.3661.41
Cash Retained (M)458.26458.26458.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.77-102.36-61.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)294.49355.90396.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,091.952,091.952,091.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate-0.19%-0.19%-0.19%
Growth Rate3.18%4.18%5.18%
Fair Value$64.62$71.36$76.17
Upside / Downside258.01%295.37%321.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)818.86853.09888.74925.88964.581,004.901,035.04
Payout Ratio44.04%53.23%62.42%71.61%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)360.60454.09554.77663.07779.45904.41957.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.19%-0.19%-0.19%
Growth Rate3.18%4.18%5.18%
Year 1 PV (M)450.61454.98459.35
Year 2 PV (M)546.29556.93567.68
Year 3 PV (M)647.93666.95686.34
Year 4 PV (M)755.81785.54816.13
Year 5 PV (M)870.24913.24957.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,124.5896,676.25101,406.08
Equity Value (M)95,395.46100,053.88104,893.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,091.952,091.952,091.95
Fair Value$45.60$47.83$50.14
Upside / Downside152.64%164.98%177.79%

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