Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co., Ltd. (002079.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.54 - $6.08$3.76
Multi-Stage$1.80 - $1.96$1.88
Blended Fair Value$2.82
Current Price$10.68
Upside-73.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.99%10.67%0.050.040.060.050.040.030.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--23.94%-24.72%21.93%17.73%25.78%-5.10%11.40%65.72%-4.29%-2.39%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.44%0.36%0.44%0.42%0.33%0.42%0.38%0.20%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1611.987.19
Cash Retained (M)73.0873.0873.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.16-11.98-7.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.9261.1065.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)806.80806.80806.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.54$3.76$6.08
Upside / Downside-76.19%-64.77%-43.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.80102.03108.66115.72123.24131.25135.19
Payout Ratio23.72%36.98%50.23%63.49%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7237.7354.5873.4794.58118.13125.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1534.4734.79
Year 2 PV (M)44.7245.5746.43
Year 3 PV (M)54.4956.0557.64
Year 4 PV (M)63.4965.9368.44
Year 5 PV (M)71.7875.2478.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,179.711,236.691,295.85
Equity Value (M)1,448.331,513.951,582.00
Shares Outstanding (M)806.80806.80806.80
Fair Value$1.80$1.88$1.96
Upside / Downside-83.19%-82.43%-81.64%

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