Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd. (002039.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.03 - $8.43$7.23
Multi-Stage$18.45 - $20.39$19.40
Blended Fair Value$13.31
Current Price$16.83
Upside-20.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.60%-7.01%0.931.071.081.341.261.311.381.471.752.13
YoY Growth---12.47%-1.56%-18.98%6.17%-4.07%-5.10%-6.14%-15.70%-18.01%10.42%
Dividend Yield--5.74%6.77%7.31%10.60%11.15%13.33%13.24%13.64%15.31%16.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)231.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)213.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1455.7133.43
Cash Retained (M)213.76213.76213.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.14-55.71-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.62158.05180.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)427.56427.56427.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-6.63%-5.63%-4.63%
Fair Value$6.03$7.23$8.43
Upside / Downside-64.16%-57.06%-49.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.71420.63396.95374.62353.53333.64343.65
Payout Ratio52.04%59.63%67.22%74.82%82.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)231.95250.83266.85280.27291.34300.27317.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-6.63%-5.63%-4.63%
Year 1 PV (M)233.50236.00238.50
Year 2 PV (M)231.25236.23241.26
Year 3 PV (M)226.10233.44240.94
Year 4 PV (M)218.79228.31238.15
Year 5 PV (M)209.92221.40233.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,767.517,137.757,524.02
Equity Value (M)7,887.078,293.148,716.26
Shares Outstanding (M)427.56427.56427.56
Fair Value$18.45$19.40$20.39
Upside / Downside9.61%15.25%21.13%

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