Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shaoxing Xingxin New Materials Co Ltd (001358.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.85 - $7.53$6.09
Multi-Stage$11.64 - $12.78$12.20
Blended Fair Value$9.14
Current Price$31.86
Upside-71.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.860.010.020.270.220.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7,382.12%-30.59%-93.81%20.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.81%0.04%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.727.954.77
Cash Retained (M)2.942.942.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.72-7.95-4.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.78-5.01-1.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.04123.04123.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.85$6.09$7.53
Upside / Downside-84.77%-80.88%-76.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.6262.9862.3561.7361.1160.5062.32
Payout Ratio95.37%94.30%93.22%92.15%91.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6859.3958.1356.8855.6654.4557.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.2855.8456.41
Year 2 PV (M)50.3651.3952.43
Year 3 PV (M)45.8747.2848.73
Year 4 PV (M)41.7743.5045.29
Year 5 PV (M)38.0440.0242.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,200.401,262.901,327.99
Equity Value (M)1,431.701,500.941,572.93
Shares Outstanding (M)123.04123.04123.04
Fair Value$11.64$12.20$12.78
Upside / Downside-63.48%-61.71%-59.88%

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