Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co.,Ltd (001206.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.75 - $237.56$222.63
Multi-Stage$36.09 - $39.48$37.75
Blended Fair Value$130.19
Current Price$30.38
Upside328.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS75.15%0.00%0.890.600.360.410.000.050.030.030.030.04
YoY Growth--47.65%69.28%-12.50%0.00%-100.00%104.90%-10.39%15.27%-30.09%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.75%4.50%2.02%2.25%0.00%0.17%0.08%0.09%0.08%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.1827.6116.57
Cash Retained (M)110.27110.27110.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.18-27.61-16.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.0982.6693.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.92184.92184.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.75$222.63$237.56
Upside / Downside257.95%632.82%681.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.89235.25250.54266.82284.17302.64311.71
Payout Ratio50.08%58.06%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.62136.59165.47197.53233.06272.37288.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)127.14128.34129.55
Year 2 PV (M)143.36146.09148.85
Year 3 PV (M)159.29163.86168.52
Year 4 PV (M)174.93181.66188.58
Year 5 PV (M)190.29199.48209.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,877.946,161.856,456.62
Equity Value (M)6,672.966,981.297,301.15
Shares Outstanding (M)184.92184.92184.92
Fair Value$36.09$37.75$39.48
Upside / Downside18.78%24.27%29.97%

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