Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Hexie Shuangma Co., Ltd. (000935.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.70 - $2.24$1.98
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.60$3.42
Blended Fair Value$2.70
Current Price$21.42
Upside-87.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS173.19%6.31%0.340.000.240.210.100.000.240.120.090.19
YoY Growth--20,167.55%-99.30%13.41%119.85%4,184.94%-99.05%102.60%30.37%-52.75%2.29%
Dividend Yield--2.16%0.01%1.12%1.05%0.67%0.02%1.24%0.59%0.39%2.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)301.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.6744.8026.88
Cash Retained (M)301.37301.37301.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.67-44.80-26.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.70256.58274.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)762.36762.36762.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate-10.29%-9.29%-8.29%
Fair Value$1.70$1.98$2.24
Upside / Downside-92.06%-90.75%-89.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.36325.07294.87267.48242.63220.09226.69
Payout Ratio15.90%30.72%45.54%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.9999.87134.29161.45182.41198.08209.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate-10.29%-9.29%-8.29%
Year 1 PV (M)90.1691.1792.18
Year 2 PV (M)109.46111.91114.39
Year 3 PV (M)118.81122.83126.93
Year 4 PV (M)121.19126.68132.36
Year 5 PV (M)118.81125.58132.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,922.202,031.752,146.23
Equity Value (M)2,480.622,609.912,744.75
Shares Outstanding (M)762.36762.36762.36
Fair Value$3.25$3.42$3.60
Upside / Downside-84.81%-84.02%-83.19%

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