Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. (000902.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.53 - $245.01$229.61
Multi-Stage$39.31 - $43.05$41.14
Blended Fair Value$135.38
Current Price$13.97
Upside869.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.74%68.52%0.320.210.200.200.200.200.200.150.150.02
YoY Growth--53.17%3.97%2.64%-1.95%-0.70%-1.22%33.33%-1.06%718.13%988.88%
Dividend Yield--2.53%1.93%1.88%1.14%1.12%2.48%1.84%1.57%1.70%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,575.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)410.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,165.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)315.15196.97118.18
Cash Retained (M)1,165.051,165.051,165.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-315.15-196.97-118.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)849.91968.091,046.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,279.011,279.011,279.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.53$229.61$245.01
Upside / Downside956.07%1,543.63%1,653.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,575.741,678.161,787.241,903.412,027.142,158.902,223.67
Payout Ratio26.06%38.85%51.64%64.43%77.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)410.69651.97922.891,226.281,565.201,943.012,056.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)608.12613.88619.65
Year 2 PV (M)802.91818.21833.64
Year 3 PV (M)995.101,023.661,052.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,184.691,230.251,277.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,371.731,437.981,506.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,310.9947,499.5349,771.82
Equity Value (M)50,273.5452,623.5155,061.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,279.011,279.011,279.01
Fair Value$39.31$41.14$43.05
Upside / Downside181.37%194.52%208.16%

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