Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd (000800.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $0.64$0.56
Multi-Stage$0.56 - $0.60$0.58
Blended Fair Value$0.57
Current Price$7.01
Upside-91.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.46%36.49%0.140.000.620.470.000.200.010.010.010.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%30.10%0.00%-100.00%2,876.42%-25.36%-37.68%330.00%-47.37%
Dividend Yield--1.75%0.00%7.43%5.48%0.00%2.26%0.08%0.09%0.12%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)630.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)383.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.1878.8747.32
Cash Retained (M)383.82383.82383.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.18-78.87-47.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.64304.96336.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,907.444,907.444,907.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate18.23%18.23%18.23%
Growth Rate-2.41%-1.41%-0.41%
Fair Value$0.49$0.56$0.64
Upside / Downside-93.06%-91.94%-90.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)630.92622.00613.21604.54596.00587.57605.20
Payout Ratio39.16%49.33%59.50%69.67%79.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.10306.84364.85421.16475.80528.82559.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate18.23%18.23%18.23%
Growth Rate-2.41%-1.41%-0.41%
Year 1 PV (M)256.91259.54262.17
Year 2 PV (M)255.76261.03266.35
Year 3 PV (M)247.19254.86262.70
Year 4 PV (M)233.81243.54253.57
Year 5 PV (M)217.57228.95240.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,512.681,591.791,674.18
Equity Value (M)2,723.912,839.712,959.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,907.444,907.444,907.44
Fair Value$0.56$0.58$0.60
Upside / Downside-92.08%-91.75%-91.40%

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