Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

North Copper (Shanxi) Co., Ltd. (000737.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.22 - $80.44$48.57
Multi-Stage$9.53 - $10.43$9.97
Blended Fair Value$29.27
Current Price$15.96
Upside83.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.91%13.07%0.250.110.100.120.250.030.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth--135.33%7.70%-19.33%-51.05%762.86%-38.93%25.83%6.05%-18.26%-40.65%
Dividend Yield--2.39%1.20%1.55%1.86%4.36%1.09%1.01%0.98%0.50%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)755.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)546.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.1094.4356.66
Cash Retained (M)546.22546.22546.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.10-94.43-56.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.12451.78489.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.22$48.57$80.44
Upside / Downside20.43%204.34%403.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)755.48804.58856.88912.58971.901,035.071,066.12
Payout Ratio27.70%40.16%52.62%65.08%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.26323.11450.89593.90753.61931.56986.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)298.37301.20304.03
Year 2 PV (M)384.47391.80399.19
Year 3 PV (M)467.65481.07494.75
Year 4 PV (M)547.96569.03590.71
Year 5 PV (M)625.48655.69687.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,485.2616,233.2017,009.77
Equity Value (M)17,809.1918,631.9919,485.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$9.53$9.97$10.43
Upside / Downside-40.26%-37.50%-34.64%

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