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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (000728.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.32 - $123.76$115.98
Multi-Stage$16.60 - $18.15$17.36
Blended Fair Value$66.67
Current Price$9.13
Upside630.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.43%14.44%0.390.380.390.370.300.380.330.360.330.13
YoY Growth--2.42%-4.08%5.52%26.03%-21.82%15.03%-7.91%8.95%155.43%27.98%
Dividend Yield--4.99%5.68%5.84%5.23%3.85%5.13%3.50%4.40%2.71%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,689.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,411.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)537.85336.16201.69
Cash Retained (M)1,277.521,277.521,277.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-537.85-336.16-201.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)739.67941.361,075.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.32$115.98$123.76
Upside / Downside319.75%1,170.30%1,255.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,689.252,864.053,050.213,248.473,459.633,684.503,795.04
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,411.731,718.322,058.812,436.302,854.163,316.053,510.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,592.761,607.861,622.95
Year 2 PV (M)1,768.911,802.601,836.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,940.291,995.982,052.74
Year 4 PV (M)2,106.972,188.002,271.34
Year 5 PV (M)2,269.062,378.662,492.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,061.1765,058.7568,171.05
Equity Value (M)71,739.1775,031.8678,447.16
Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
Fair Value$16.60$17.36$18.15
Upside / Downside81.82%90.17%98.82%

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