Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000623.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.44 - $56.90$42.05
Multi-Stage$76.92 - $84.78$80.77
Blended Fair Value$61.41
Current Price$20.01
Upside206.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.50%27.97%0.940.350.330.230.220.210.310.240.260.18
YoY Growth--164.62%6.04%47.73%1.35%4.76%-31.48%29.79%-8.24%47.70%122.01%
Dividend Yield--5.68%2.40%2.18%1.27%1.40%1.35%1.67%1.16%1.11%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,567.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,271.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)513.55320.97192.58
Cash Retained (M)2,271.772,271.772,271.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-513.55-320.97-192.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,758.221,950.802,079.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.091,133.091,133.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.721.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.721.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Fair Value$31.44$42.05$56.90
Upside / Downside57.10%110.17%184.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,567.772,581.702,595.702,609.772,623.932,638.162,717.30
Payout Ratio11.53%27.22%42.92%58.61%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.00702.791,113.981,529.611,949.722,374.342,513.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Year 1 PV (M)660.89667.53674.16
Year 2 PV (M)985.101,004.991,025.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,271.991,310.711,350.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,524.671,586.871,650.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,746.011,835.491,928.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,963.6585,112.9889,430.71
Equity Value (M)87,152.3191,518.5796,059.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.091,133.091,133.09
Fair Value$76.92$80.77$84.78
Upside / Downside284.39%303.64%323.67%

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