Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Create Technology & Science Co.,Ltd. (000551.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.87 - $17.39$12.23
Multi-Stage$7.59 - $8.31$7.94
Blended Fair Value$10.09
Current Price$11.30
Upside-10.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.18%2.56%0.100.100.050.130.050.050.140.050.050.15
YoY Growth---7.27%101.60%-62.15%171.70%-7.59%-61.53%154.59%9.39%-67.08%105.46%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.38%0.60%1.85%0.67%0.88%2.19%0.89%0.58%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)250.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.5032.1919.31
Cash Retained (M)250.47250.47250.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.50-32.19-19.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)198.97218.29231.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)482.93482.93482.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$8.87$12.23$17.39
Upside / Downside-21.50%8.27%53.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.50271.18285.58300.74316.72333.54343.54
Payout Ratio2.73%20.18%37.64%55.09%72.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.0354.73107.48165.68229.76300.18317.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)49.5950.0650.54
Year 2 PV (M)88.2389.9391.64
Year 3 PV (M)123.22126.79130.44
Year 4 PV (M)154.81160.83167.03
Year 5 PV (M)183.25192.20201.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,066.103,215.913,371.52
Equity Value (M)3,665.183,835.724,012.67
Shares Outstanding (M)482.93482.93482.93
Fair Value$7.59$7.94$8.31
Upside / Downside-32.84%-29.71%-26.47%

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