Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Public Utilities Development Co., Ltd. (000421.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.82 - $60.91$57.08
Multi-Stage$9.59 - $10.48$10.02
Blended Fair Value$33.55
Current Price$6.26
Upside436.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.06%25.73%0.300.320.400.340.240.200.230.320.400.16
YoY Growth---4.42%-21.41%19.84%39.89%16.99%-10.35%-29.04%-20.06%154.22%418.29%
Dividend Yield--5.16%6.01%8.03%6.65%3.72%5.01%4.16%5.98%4.79%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.2522.0313.22
Cash Retained (M)14.6414.6414.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.25-22.03-13.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)-20.61-7.391.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)575.42575.42575.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.82$57.08$60.91
Upside / Downside360.34%811.86%873.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.24187.69199.89212.89226.73241.46248.71
Payout Ratio91.69%91.35%91.02%90.68%90.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.60171.47181.94193.04204.82217.32230.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.64161.16162.67
Year 2 PV (M)157.71160.72163.75
Year 3 PV (M)155.80160.27164.83
Year 4 PV (M)153.91159.83165.92
Year 5 PV (M)152.04159.38167.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,738.024,966.875,204.48
Equity Value (M)5,517.135,768.236,028.65
Shares Outstanding (M)575.42575.42575.42
Fair Value$9.59$10.02$10.48
Upside / Downside53.16%60.13%67.36%

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