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Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (WALMEX.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.20 - $191.77$107.23
Multi-Stage$68.18 - $74.57$71.32
Blended Fair Value$89.27
Current Price$56.57
Upside57.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.79%5.62%2.152.671.701.621.782.071.472.461.671.82
YoY Growth---19.31%56.81%4.86%-8.87%-13.97%40.56%-40.17%47.57%-8.21%45.83%
Dividend Yield--3.82%4.04%2.36%1.98%2.76%3.71%2.81%5.30%3.86%4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50,490.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,399.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,091.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,098.106,311.313,786.79
Cash Retained (M)13,091.0513,091.0513,091.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,098.10-6,311.31-3,786.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,992.956,779.749,304.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.322.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$69.20$107.23$191.77
Upside / Downside22.32%89.55%238.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50,490.5052,824.2955,265.9557,820.4760,493.0763,289.2065,187.87
Payout Ratio74.07%77.26%80.44%83.63%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,399.4540,810.8944,457.7848,354.6252,516.7256,960.2860,298.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)37,740.4138,104.6238,468.84
Year 2 PV (M)38,019.7338,757.0939,501.52
Year 3 PV (M)38,241.0639,358.9140,498.33
Year 4 PV (M)38,407.8639,912.0741,460.04
Year 5 PV (M)38,523.4640,418.5242,387.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)994,137.501,043,041.641,093,851.70
Equity Value (M)1,185,070.021,239,592.861,296,167.88
Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
Fair Value$68.18$71.32$74.57
Upside / Downside20.52%26.07%31.82%

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