Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Virgin Money UK PLC (VMUK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.36 - $97.03$90.93
Multi-Stage$23.15 - $25.37$24.24
Blended Fair Value$57.59
Current Price$2.16
Upside2,565.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS75.07%0.00%0.110.040.060.060.030.010.030.030.010.00
YoY Growth--196.00%-36.71%0.00%75.56%400.00%-75.00%2.86%94.44%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.41%2.93%2.82%7.87%2.85%0.20%0.86%0.96%0.68%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)671.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.2083.8850.33
Cash Retained (M)351.00351.00351.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.20-83.88-50.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.80267.13300.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,375.291,375.291,375.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.36$90.93$97.03
Upside / Downside3,712.82%4,109.80%4,392.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)671.00714.62761.06810.53863.22919.33946.91
Payout Ratio47.69%56.15%64.61%73.08%81.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.00401.27491.75592.31703.85827.40875.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)377.83381.41384.99
Year 2 PV (M)435.97444.28452.66
Year 3 PV (M)494.44508.64523.10
Year 4 PV (M)553.23574.51596.39
Year 5 PV (M)612.34641.92672.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,366.3430,784.7532,257.44
Equity Value (M)31,840.1633,335.5034,887.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,375.291,375.291,375.29
Fair Value$23.15$24.24$25.37
Upside / Downside971.83%1,022.17%1,074.40%

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