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Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.10 - $30.77$25.08
Multi-Stage$43.56 - $47.94$45.71
Blended Fair Value$35.39
Current Price$27.48
Upside28.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-1.42%0.00%0.500.500.430.420.150.540.530.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.43%16.42%1.66%177.39%-71.76%2.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.94%1.91%1.70%0.61%2.15%2.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,152.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,867.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,285.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)830.40519.00311.40
Cash Retained (M)2,285.002,285.002,285.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-830.40-519.00-311.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,454.601,766.001,973.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.891,858.891,858.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.951.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.951.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.952.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.10$25.08$30.77
Upside / Downside-26.87%-8.73%11.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,152.004,110.484,069.384,028.683,988.393,948.514,066.97
Payout Ratio44.97%53.97%62.98%71.99%80.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,867.002,218.552,562.882,900.113,230.333,553.663,761.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,057.962,078.962,099.96
Year 2 PV (M)2,205.292,250.532,296.22
Year 3 PV (M)2,314.832,386.422,459.47
Year 4 PV (M)2,391.782,490.912,593.08
Year 5 PV (M)2,440.722,567.822,700.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,564.0873,186.4476,958.15
Equity Value (M)80,974.6684,961.0789,107.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,858.891,858.891,858.89
Fair Value$43.56$45.71$47.94
Upside / Downside58.52%66.32%74.44%

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