Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Trane Technologies plc (TT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$381.52 - $1,480.33$646.26
Multi-Stage$239.97 - $262.30$250.93
Blended Fair Value$448.60
Current Price$421.96
Upside6.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.23%11.09%3.353.032.752.482.252.262.121.901.541.34
YoY Growth--10.79%10.24%10.53%10.61%-0.55%6.38%11.49%23.38%14.94%14.58%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.02%1.49%1.63%1.36%2.74%2.48%2.87%2.45%2.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,931.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)817.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,113.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)586.32366.45219.87
Cash Retained (M)2,113.802,113.802,113.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-586.32-366.45-219.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,527.481,747.351,893.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)225.80225.80225.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.767.748.39
LTM Dividend per Share3.623.623.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.767.748.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3911.3612.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$381.52$646.26$1,480.33
Upside / Downside-9.58%53.16%250.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,931.603,122.153,325.093,541.233,771.404,016.554,137.04
Payout Ratio27.90%40.32%52.74%65.16%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)817.801,258.751,753.582,307.412,925.833,614.893,826.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,150.601,161.511,172.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,465.191,493.101,521.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,762.301,812.891,864.44
Year 4 PV (M)2,042.632,121.182,201.98
Year 5 PV (M)2,306.862,418.292,533.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,458.3047,653.9549,933.64
Equity Value (M)54,185.8956,660.9359,227.72
Shares Outstanding (M)225.80225.80225.80
Fair Value$239.97$250.93$262.30
Upside / Downside-43.13%-40.53%-37.84%

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