Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tivoli A/S (TIV.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$281.24 - $514.98$377.92
Multi-Stage$318.02 - $348.36$332.90
Blended Fair Value$355.41
Current Price$614.00
Upside-42.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.76%8.91%3.772.840.000.000.004.123.423.281.921.94
YoY Growth--32.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%20.41%4.26%70.91%-0.90%20.65%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.63%0.50%0.50%0.32%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0413.788.27
Cash Retained (M)79.3079.3079.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.04-13.78-8.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2665.5371.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
LTM Dividend per Share5.395.395.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.3816.8217.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$281.24$377.92$514.98
Upside / Downside-54.20%-38.45%-16.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.20114.25118.44122.79127.30131.97135.93
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.22%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.9046.1962.5780.0898.79118.77125.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)42.2542.6643.07
Year 2 PV (M)52.3353.3654.39
Year 3 PV (M)61.2663.0764.91
Year 4 PV (M)69.1271.8574.67
Year 5 PV (M)76.0079.7883.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,522.141,597.731,676.28
Equity Value (M)1,823.101,908.441,997.02
Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
Fair Value$318.02$332.90$348.36
Upside / Downside-48.21%-45.78%-43.26%

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