Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Seven Group Holdings Limited (SVW.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.42 - $567.59$531.91
Multi-Stage$87.40 - $95.69$91.47
Blended Fair Value$311.69
Current Price$37.24
Upside736.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.87%1.19%0.450.450.450.400.380.370.400.370.380.39
YoY Growth--0.30%0.00%11.92%4.77%2.81%-6.79%9.18%-2.37%-4.32%-2.08%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.82%2.71%1.97%2.23%1.97%2.10%3.35%6.24%6.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)726.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.20132.6379.58
Cash Retained (M)726.30726.30726.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.20-132.63-79.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)514.10593.68646.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)371.76371.76371.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.601.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.601.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.502.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$285.42$531.91$567.59
Upside / Downside666.44%1,328.33%1,424.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.001,129.971,203.411,281.631,364.941,453.661,497.27
Payout Ratio31.55%43.24%54.93%66.62%78.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.70488.56661.00853.801,068.871,308.301,384.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)455.10459.41463.73
Year 2 PV (M)573.57584.49595.52
Year 3 PV (M)690.13709.94730.12
Year 4 PV (M)804.80835.75867.58
Year 5 PV (M)917.61961.931,007.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,049.3530,452.4431,909.24
Equity Value (M)32,490.5434,003.9635,574.13
Shares Outstanding (M)371.76371.76371.76
Fair Value$87.40$91.47$95.69
Upside / Downside134.68%145.62%156.96%

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