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Definitive Analysis

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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.29 - $410.03$193.74
Multi-Stage$108.33 - $118.63$113.38
Blended Fair Value$153.56
Current Price$58.20
Upside163.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.41%6.52%2.272.232.101.261.352.121.891.721.521.34
YoY Growth--1.96%5.89%67.48%-7.19%-36.11%12.04%9.84%13.16%13.90%10.60%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.42%5.01%3.08%5.16%9.54%4.30%3.87%3.72%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,260.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,803.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,457.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,052.00657.50394.50
Cash Retained (M)2,457.002,457.002,457.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,052.00-657.50-394.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,405.001,799.502,062.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,233.501,233.501,233.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.461.67
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.461.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.413.733.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$117.29$193.74$410.03
Upside / Downside101.54%232.88%604.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,260.005,509.375,770.576,044.156,330.706,630.846,829.77
Payout Ratio53.29%60.63%67.97%75.32%82.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,803.003,340.403,922.454,552.195,232.825,967.766,317.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)3,099.073,128.943,158.81
Year 2 PV (M)3,376.163,441.563,507.59
Year 3 PV (M)3,635.113,741.253,849.43
Year 4 PV (M)3,876.734,028.384,184.44
Year 5 PV (M)4,101.794,303.334,512.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,539.45121,216.50127,114.54
Equity Value (M)133,628.31139,859.96146,327.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,233.501,233.501,233.50
Fair Value$108.33$113.38$118.63
Upside / Downside86.14%94.82%103.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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