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Definitive Analysis

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Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (PIRC.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.88 - $9.95$7.65
Multi-Stage$10.99 - $12.07$11.52
Blended Fair Value$9.59
Current Price$5.79
Upside65.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.93%2.47%0.200.220.180.080.000.180.010.010.000.19
YoY Growth---8.29%20.21%131.93%0.00%-100.00%2,120.51%-34.34%520.65%-98.92%18.40%
Dividend Yield--3.66%3.87%3.93%1.59%0.00%5.57%0.14%0.17%0.03%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)496.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.2362.0237.21
Cash Retained (M)239.82239.82239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.23-62.02-37.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.59177.80202.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.411,020.411,020.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$5.88$7.65$9.95
Upside / Downside1.57%32.21%71.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)496.17500.78505.44510.14514.89519.67535.26
Payout Ratio51.67%59.33%67.00%74.67%82.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.35297.13338.64380.90423.92467.71495.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)276.13278.89281.65
Year 2 PV (M)292.46298.34304.29
Year 3 PV (M)305.71314.98324.43
Year 4 PV (M)316.19329.03342.27
Year 5 PV (M)324.19340.73357.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,695.4510,190.3710,705.30
Equity Value (M)11,210.1211,752.3512,315.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.411,020.411,020.41
Fair Value$10.99$11.52$12.07
Upside / Downside89.74%98.92%108.45%

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