Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $22.10 - $35.21 | $28.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.81 - $32.56 | $31.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $29.61 | |
| Current Price | $47.25 | |
| Upside | -37.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.24% | -4.15% | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 1.87 | 2.66 | 2.41 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.30 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.93% | 15.29% | 41.12% | -54.53% | -29.69% | 10.53% | 1.19% | 1.60% | 1.99% | 2.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.97% | 2.09% | 1.92% | 1.50% | 7.03% | 22.98% | 3.58% | 3.66% | 3.70% | 3.36% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,067.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,563.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 413.40 | 258.38 | 155.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 | 504.00 | 504.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -413.40 | -258.38 | -155.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 90.60 | 245.63 | 348.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.94 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Fair Value | $22.10 | $28.06 | $35.21 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.23% | -40.62% | -25.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,067.00 | 2,116.68 | 2,167.56 | 2,219.65 | 2,273.00 | 2,327.63 | 2,397.46 |
| Payout Ratio | 75.62% | 78.49% | 81.37% | 84.25% | 87.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,563.00 | 1,661.46 | 1,763.74 | 1,869.99 | 1,980.32 | 2,094.87 | 2,217.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,508.03 | 1,522.90 | 1,537.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,453.04 | 1,481.84 | 1,510.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,398.31 | 1,440.08 | 1,482.69 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,344.06 | 1,397.87 | 1,453.28 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,290.52 | 1,355.42 | 1,422.90 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,403.36 | 23,530.03 | 24,701.57 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,397.32 | 30,728.14 | 32,109.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| Fair Value | $29.81 | $31.16 | $32.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.91% | -34.05% | -31.09% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |