Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$280.32 - $1,050.97$833.11
Multi-Stage$131.13 - $143.46$137.18
Blended Fair Value$485.14
Current Price$42.90
Upside1,030.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.20%11.24%1.852.002.032.032.062.171.941.620.450.58
YoY Growth---7.66%-1.32%0.07%-1.85%-5.02%11.87%20.04%260.44%-22.14%-9.45%
Dividend Yield--4.74%6.29%7.51%5.64%5.40%12.76%5.29%3.71%1.41%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.5528.4717.08
Cash Retained (M)151.69151.69151.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.55-28.47-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.14123.22134.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.1043.1043.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.863.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.771.771.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.863.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.234.624.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$280.32$833.11$1,050.97
Upside / Downside553.42%1,841.97%2,349.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.77242.57258.34275.13293.01312.06321.42
Payout Ratio33.40%44.72%56.04%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.08108.48144.77185.33230.54280.85297.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)100.34101.30102.25
Year 2 PV (M)123.88126.24128.62
Year 3 PV (M)146.69150.90155.19
Year 4 PV (M)168.79175.28181.96
Year 5 PV (M)190.21199.40208.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,921.805,159.535,406.35
Equity Value (M)5,651.715,912.636,183.30
Shares Outstanding (M)43.1043.1043.10
Fair Value$131.13$137.18$143.46
Upside / Downside205.66%219.77%234.41%

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