Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Novonesis (Novozymes) B (NSISBC.XD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$337.94 - $1,453.02$585.81
Multi-Stage$349.63 - $383.12$366.06
Blended Fair Value$475.94
Current Price$453.50
Upside4.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS5.31%0.00%4.987.564.083.923.963.850.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---34.08%85.37%4.03%-1.15%3.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.91%1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,212.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,888.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,324.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)842.52526.57315.94
Cash Retained (M)1,324.481,324.481,324.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-842.52-526.57-315.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)481.96797.911,008.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.91373.91373.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.292.132.70
LTM Dividend per Share7.727.727.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.292.132.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.019.8610.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Fair Value$337.94$585.81$1,453.02
Upside / Downside-25.48%29.18%220.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,212.594,394.024,583.254,780.644,986.535,201.285,357.32
Payout Ratio68.56%72.85%77.14%81.42%85.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,888.113,200.923,535.313,892.574,274.044,681.154,955.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,989.043,017.973,046.90
Year 2 PV (M)3,082.773,142.743,203.29
Year 3 PV (M)3,169.613,262.553,357.29
Year 4 PV (M)3,249.863,377.543,508.93
Year 5 PV (M)3,323.813,487.823,658.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,913.17120,583.64126,475.79
Equity Value (M)130,728.26136,872.26143,250.45
Shares Outstanding (M)373.91373.91373.91
Fair Value$349.63$366.06$383.12
Upside / Downside-22.90%-19.28%-15.52%

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