Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nedbank Group Limited (NED.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,302.73 - $2,870.91$1,874.66
Multi-Stage$1,281.80 - $1,401.12$1,340.36
Blended Fair Value$1,607.51
Current Price$243.04
Upside561.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%7.72%20.3817.9716.334.547.3014.8714.0712.6811.6611.26
YoY Growth--13.37%10.08%259.32%-37.77%-50.88%5.66%10.92%8.82%3.56%16.20%
Dividend Yield--7.23%8.40%7.68%2.60%5.64%6.94%5.12%4.95%4.89%5.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,358.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,876.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,471.604,044.752,426.85
Cash Retained (M)12,876.0012,876.0012,876.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,471.60-4,044.75-2,426.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,404.408,831.2510,449.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)479.32479.32479.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.3618.4221.80
LTM Dividend per Share40.6540.6540.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.3618.4221.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend54.0159.0762.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$1,302.73$1,874.66$2,870.91
Upside / Downside436.02%671.34%1,081.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,358.0033,879.7035,472.9637,141.1538,887.7940,716.5641,938.06
Payout Ratio60.21%66.17%72.12%78.08%84.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,482.0022,416.8925,584.7329,000.9532,681.8936,644.9138,792.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)20,557.7920,756.0320,954.27
Year 2 PV (M)21,517.0621,934.0422,355.02
Year 3 PV (M)22,367.4023,020.7223,686.64
Year 4 PV (M)23,115.9324,020.5424,951.44
Year 5 PV (M)23,769.4424,937.7926,151.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)503,067.66527,795.26553,485.80
Equity Value (M)614,395.29642,464.38671,584.81
Shares Outstanding (M)479.32479.32479.32
Fair Value$1,281.80$1,340.36$1,401.12
Upside / Downside427.40%451.50%476.50%

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