Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Motiva S.A. (MOTV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.69 - $66.40$41.99
Multi-Stage$39.15 - $42.99$41.03
Blended Fair Value$41.51
Current Price$14.88
Upside178.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.44%-6.07%0.370.190.380.140.480.760.600.630.620.52
YoY Growth--95.78%-50.28%179.48%-71.71%-36.86%27.13%-4.79%1.80%19.02%-24.96%
Dividend Yield--3.22%1.45%3.16%1.09%4.13%7.49%6.20%6.64%4.54%5.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,891.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)972.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,919.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)578.34361.46216.88
Cash Retained (M)1,919.501,919.501,919.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-578.34-361.46-216.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,341.161,558.041,702.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,020.002,020.002,020.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Fair Value$28.69$41.99$66.40
Upside / Downside92.83%182.19%346.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,891.682,982.363,075.883,172.333,271.813,374.413,475.64
Payout Ratio33.62%44.90%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)972.181,338.961,727.782,139.682,575.703,036.973,214.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)1,248.421,260.641,272.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,502.021,531.581,561.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,734.321,785.761,838.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,946.572,023.932,103.57
Year 5 PV (M)2,139.972,246.802,357.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,520.5574,041.1177,700.89
Equity Value (M)79,091.8482,889.8186,834.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2,020.002,020.002,020.00
Fair Value$39.15$41.03$42.99
Upside / Downside163.13%175.77%188.89%

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