Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Multi Hanna Kreasindo Tbk. (MHKI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.04 - $175.29$138.23
Multi-Stage$314.11 - $346.49$329.98
Blended Fair Value$234.11
Current Price$180.00
Upside30.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.790.005.510.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.00%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,784.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,932.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,852.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,357.004,598.122,758.87
Cash Retained (M)25,852.8225,852.8225,852.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,357.00-4,598.12-2,758.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,495.8321,254.7023,093.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.088.849.35
WACC / Discount Rate5.33%5.33%5.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$108.04$138.23$175.29
Upside / Downside-39.98%-23.21%-2.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,784.9836,417.1336,052.9635,692.4335,335.5034,982.1536,031.61
Payout Ratio29.72%41.78%53.83%65.89%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,932.1515,213.3519,407.8323,516.8927,541.8431,483.9333,329.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.33%5.33%5.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14,297.4714,443.3614,589.25
Year 2 PV (M)17,141.3717,492.9817,848.16
Year 3 PV (M)19,520.1420,123.8120,739.81
Year 4 PV (M)21,484.7522,375.1923,293.03
Year 5 PV (M)23,081.3224,283.2225,534.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,048,187.641,102,769.201,159,601.20
Equity Value (M)1,143,712.681,201,487.761,261,606.11
Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
Fair Value$314.11$329.98$346.49
Upside / Downside74.51%83.32%92.49%

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