Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Magna International Inc. (MGA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.40 - $70.57$54.83
Multi-Stage$81.60 - $89.67$85.56
Blended Fair Value$70.19
Current Price$47.38
Upside48.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.72%5.48%1.911.851.821.821.651.591.581.411.361.25
YoY Growth--3.26%1.56%0.00%10.06%4.01%0.22%12.00%3.90%8.76%12.03%
Dividend Yield--5.61%3.46%3.39%2.83%1.88%4.97%3.14%2.61%3.15%2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,033.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)491.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)206.60129.1377.48
Cash Retained (M)491.00491.00491.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-206.60-129.13-77.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)284.40361.88413.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.85282.85282.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.281.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.921.921.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.281.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.923.203.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Fair Value$42.40$54.83$70.57
Upside / Downside-10.50%15.72%48.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,033.001,039.921,046.901,053.911,060.981,068.091,100.13
Payout Ratio52.47%59.97%67.48%74.99%82.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)542.00623.69706.46790.30875.24961.281,017.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)579.61585.42591.24
Year 2 PV (M)610.11622.41634.84
Year 3 PV (M)634.27653.56673.23
Year 4 PV (M)652.79679.38706.78
Year 5 PV (M)666.28700.38735.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,938.1220,958.6022,020.44
Equity Value (M)23,081.1824,199.7625,362.39
Shares Outstanding (M)282.85282.85282.85
Fair Value$81.60$85.56$89.67
Upside / Downside72.23%80.58%89.25%

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