Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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M. Dias Branco S.A. Indústria e Comércio de Alimentos (MDIA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$208.69 - $398.21$373.18
Multi-Stage$61.69 - $67.56$64.57
Blended Fair Value$218.87
Current Price$28.74
Upside661.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.80%6.58%0.650.211.930.660.250.410.390.520.410.57
YoY Growth--217.91%-89.36%195.15%161.28%-38.85%5.01%-24.91%27.87%-28.98%65.53%
Dividend Yield--2.88%0.55%7.96%2.78%0.91%1.60%1.05%1.19%1.11%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)678.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)135.6784.8050.88
Cash Retained (M)514.02514.02514.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-135.67-84.80-50.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)378.34429.22463.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)338.79338.79338.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$208.69$373.18$398.21
Upside / Downside626.13%1,198.46%1,285.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)678.37722.46769.42819.43872.69929.42957.30
Payout Ratio24.23%37.38%50.54%63.69%76.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.35270.07388.84521.90670.63836.48885.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.65254.04256.42
Year 2 PV (M)337.62344.05350.54
Year 3 PV (M)422.26434.38446.73
Year 4 PV (M)505.59525.03545.03
Year 5 PV (M)587.63616.01645.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,794.8119,702.6120,645.15
Equity Value (M)20,899.5621,876.1222,889.36
Shares Outstanding (M)338.79338.79338.79
Fair Value$61.69$64.57$67.56
Upside / Downside114.64%124.67%135.08%

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