Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.04 - $492.07$155.29
Multi-Stage$49.83 - $54.47$52.11
Blended Fair Value$103.70
Current Price$47.78
Upside117.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.21%25.00%0.310.140.140.000.140.140.140.140.010.00
YoY Growth--118.52%2.53%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-1.23%0.00%1,925.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%0.94%1.70%0.00%2.35%1.33%1.83%1.40%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)943.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.00178.13106.88
Cash Retained (M)943.00943.00943.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.00-178.13-106.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)658.00764.88836.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.331.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.04$155.29$492.07
Upside / Downside75.90%225.01%929.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,425.001,517.631,616.271,721.331,833.211,952.372,010.94
Payout Ratio33.82%45.06%56.29%67.53%78.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)482.00683.84909.881,162.411,443.931,757.141,860.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)627.32633.27639.22
Year 2 PV (M)765.71780.29795.01
Year 3 PV (M)897.39923.15949.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,022.601,061.931,102.38
Year 5 PV (M)1,141.581,196.721,253.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,243.4525,414.4126,630.20
Equity Value (M)28,698.0530,009.7731,370.17
Shares Outstanding (M)575.92575.92575.92
Fair Value$49.83$52.11$54.47
Upside / Downside4.29%9.06%14.00%

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