Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Katana Capital Limited (KAT.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.27 - $1.92$1.57
Multi-Stage$2.54 - $2.80$2.67
Blended Fair Value$2.12
Current Price$1.22
Upside73.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.22%-13.10%0.020.020.020.020.020.020.030.030.040.08
YoY Growth---4.25%-2.66%9.02%-16.64%5.52%-33.83%8.00%-26.20%-50.17%4.58%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.68%1.87%1.70%2.26%2.73%4.37%3.99%5.83%10.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.960.600.36
Cash Retained (M)3.493.493.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.96-0.60-0.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.532.893.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.3532.3532.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.27$1.57$1.92
Upside / Downside4.01%29.07%57.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.784.734.684.644.594.544.68
Payout Ratio26.99%39.59%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.291.872.443.003.554.094.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.731.751.77
Year 2 PV (M)2.092.132.17
Year 3 PV (M)2.372.442.52
Year 4 PV (M)2.592.702.81
Year 5 PV (M)2.762.903.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)70.6874.3678.19
Equity Value (M)82.2186.2890.50
Shares Outstanding (M)32.3532.3532.35
Fair Value$2.54$2.67$2.80
Upside / Downside108.31%118.61%129.33%

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