Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Johnson Matthey Plc (JMAT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.49 - $27.49$22.78
Multi-Stage$32.52 - $35.65$34.05
Blended Fair Value$28.42
Current Price$20.10
Upside41.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.74%0.61%0.780.800.800.790.560.950.880.830.792.52
YoY Growth---2.13%0.00%1.44%40.40%-40.72%7.05%6.85%5.04%-68.74%242.26%
Dividend Yield--5.91%4.47%4.03%4.20%1.86%5.27%2.76%2.72%2.56%9.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)270.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.0050.0030.00
Cash Retained (M)130.00130.00130.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.00-50.00-30.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.0080.00100.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.32176.32176.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.450.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.450.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.992.10
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Fair Value$18.49$22.78$27.49
Upside / Downside-8.03%13.32%36.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.00398.43396.86395.30393.74392.20403.96
Payout Ratio67.50%72.00%76.50%81.00%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)270.00286.87303.60320.19336.65352.98373.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Year 1 PV (M)262.25264.91267.57
Year 2 PV (M)253.73258.91264.13
Year 3 PV (M)244.64252.16259.83
Year 4 PV (M)235.15244.83254.81
Year 5 PV (M)225.40237.06249.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,512.824,746.334,989.42
Equity Value (M)5,733.996,004.216,284.97
Shares Outstanding (M)176.32176.32176.32
Fair Value$32.52$34.05$35.65
Upside / Downside61.80%69.42%77.34%

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