Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $75.53 - $111.50 | $92.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $117.53 - $128.79 | $123.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $107.91 | |
| Current Price | $210.50 | |
| Upside | -48.74% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.51% | 6.75% | 4.49 | 4.42 | 4.21 | 4.06 | 4.01 | 3.78 | 3.51 | 3.28 | 2.96 | 2.67 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.65% | 5.00% | 3.54% | 1.31% | 6.14% | 7.48% | 7.22% | 10.65% | 10.95% | 14.30% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.12% | 2.19% | 2.20% | 2.09% | 1.85% | 2.82% | 2.18% | 2.37% | 2.48% | 2.50% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,129.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,955.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3,174.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,225.80 | 766.13 | 459.68 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3,174.00 | 3,174.00 | 3,174.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,225.80 | -766.13 | -459.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,948.20 | 2,407.88 | 2,714.33 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 646.55 | 646.55 | 646.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.01 | 3.72 | 4.20 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.57 | 4.57 | 4.57 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.01 | 3.72 | 4.20 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 7.58 | 8.29 | 8.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.86% | 0.14% | 1.14% |
| Fair Value | $75.53 | $92.77 | $111.50 |
| Upside / Downside | -64.12% | -55.93% | -47.03% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,129.00 | 6,137.82 | 6,146.65 | 6,155.50 | 6,164.36 | 6,173.23 | 6,358.42 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.21% | 56.57% | 64.93% | 73.29% | 81.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,955.00 | 3,472.21 | 3,990.90 | 4,511.08 | 5,032.75 | 5,555.90 | 5,881.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.86% | 0.14% | 1.14% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,150.87 | 3,182.65 | 3,214.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,286.40 | 3,353.03 | 3,420.33 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,370.97 | 3,474.00 | 3,579.12 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,412.74 | 3,552.53 | 3,696.57 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,418.84 | 3,594.77 | 3,777.87 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 59,350.90 | 62,405.06 | 65,583.68 |
| Equity Value (M) | 75,990.72 | 79,562.05 | 83,272.00 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 646.55 | 646.55 | 646.55 |
| Fair Value | $117.53 | $123.06 | $128.79 |
| Upside / Downside | -44.17% | -41.54% | -38.82% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |