Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$668.54 - $3,563.89$1,323.32
Multi-Stage$536.25 - $587.12$561.21
Blended Fair Value$942.27
Current Price$357.40
Upside163.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.06%9.25%11.6416.4811.8411.073.617.216.946.415.615.34
YoY Growth---29.36%39.21%6.95%207.05%-50.00%3.85%8.33%14.29%5.00%11.11%
Dividend Yield--2.93%3.79%2.97%2.10%0.94%2.64%3.37%2.83%3.21%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,856.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,888.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)968.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)571.20357.00214.20
Cash Retained (M)968.00968.00968.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-571.20-357.00-214.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)396.80611.00753.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.24157.24157.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.523.894.79
LTM Dividend per Share12.0112.0112.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.523.894.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.5315.8916.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$668.54$1,323.32$3,563.89
Upside / Downside87.06%270.26%897.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,856.003,000.513,152.323,311.823,479.393,655.443,765.11
Payout Ratio66.11%70.89%75.66%80.44%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,888.002,126.912,385.172,664.122,965.183,289.903,482.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)1,981.412,000.452,019.50
Year 2 PV (M)2,070.002,109.972,150.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,153.922,216.612,280.51
Year 4 PV (M)2,233.332,320.422,410.04
Year 5 PV (M)2,308.392,421.462,538.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,571.3677,175.0280,918.52
Equity Value (M)84,318.4188,243.9492,317.81
Shares Outstanding (M)157.24157.24157.24
Fair Value$536.25$561.21$587.12
Upside / Downside50.04%57.03%64.28%

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