Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Harvia Oyj (HARVIA.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.54 - $250.02$234.31
Multi-Stage$34.43 - $37.64$36.01
Blended Fair Value$135.16
Current Price$48.50
Upside178.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.94%0.00%0.680.640.600.510.380.370.180.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.30%6.75%17.70%33.95%2.70%105.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.55%1.67%2.72%1.39%1.23%4.10%2.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.732.961.77
Cash Retained (M)10.1910.1910.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.73-2.96-1.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.467.238.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8118.8118.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.54$234.31$250.02
Upside / Downside70.19%383.11%415.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.6425.1826.8228.5630.4232.3933.36
Payout Ratio56.92%63.53%70.15%76.77%83.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.4616.0018.8121.9225.3629.1530.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.8414.9815.12
Year 2 PV (M)16.1916.5016.81
Year 3 PV (M)17.5018.0018.52
Year 4 PV (M)18.7819.5020.25
Year 5 PV (M)20.0321.0022.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)560.10587.15615.24
Equity Value (M)647.44677.14707.94
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8118.8118.81
Fair Value$34.43$36.01$37.64
Upside / Downside-29.02%-25.76%-22.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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