Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gulf Warehousing Company Q.P.S.C. (GWCS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.49 - $2.22$1.84
Multi-Stage$3.61 - $3.98$3.79
Blended Fair Value$2.81
Current Price$2.76
Upside1.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.35%-1.01%0.110.100.100.100.200.190.170.160.150.12
YoY Growth--10.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%5.26%11.76%6.25%6.67%23.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.55%3.13%2.67%2.36%3.91%4.51%4.20%3.94%2.86%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.4013.378.02
Cash Retained (M)48.3848.3848.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.40-13.37-8.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.9835.0040.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)586.03586.03586.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-3.01%-2.01%-1.01%
Fair Value$1.49$1.84$2.22
Upside / Downside-46.12%-33.48%-19.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.98104.83102.72100.6698.6496.6699.56
Payout Ratio54.78%61.82%68.87%75.91%82.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.6064.8170.7476.4181.8386.9992.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-3.01%-2.01%-1.01%
Year 1 PV (M)60.2260.8561.47
Year 2 PV (M)61.0962.3563.63
Year 3 PV (M)61.3163.2365.18
Year 4 PV (M)61.0163.5766.20
Year 5 PV (M)60.2763.4466.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,814.351,909.832,009.29
Equity Value (M)2,118.262,223.272,332.52
Shares Outstanding (M)586.03586.03586.03
Fair Value$3.61$3.79$3.98
Upside / Downside30.96%37.46%44.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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