Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S. (FROTO.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$605.45 - $2,500.78$1,556.35
Multi-Stage$301.97 - $330.18$315.82
Blended Fair Value$936.09
Current Price$99.05
Upside845.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.89%63.21%8.656.772.411.310.400.470.440.290.240.15
YoY Growth--27.71%180.77%83.51%226.60%-14.75%6.71%52.44%19.05%65.79%128.00%
Dividend Yield--8.31%6.00%4.13%4.40%2.08%9.86%9.54%4.68%6.85%3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,197.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,864.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,332.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,839.464,274.662,564.80
Cash Retained (M)19,332.4219,332.4219,332.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,839.46-4,274.66-2,564.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,492.9615,057.7516,767.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,719.552,719.552,719.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.595.546.17
LTM Dividend per Share5.475.475.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.595.546.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0611.0011.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$605.45$1,556.35$2,500.78
Upside / Downside511.26%1,471.28%2,424.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,197.3136,420.1438,787.4541,308.6343,993.6946,853.2848,258.88
Payout Ratio43.47%52.77%62.08%71.39%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,864.8919,220.5124,079.5629,489.0835,500.0942,167.9544,639.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,752.4717,920.7418,089.01
Year 2 PV (M)20,541.6920,932.9521,327.90
Year 3 PV (M)23,234.9923,901.9824,581.62
Year 4 PV (M)25,834.7726,828.3027,850.22
Year 5 PV (M)28,343.3629,712.3531,133.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)705,507.15739,583.41774,963.85
Equity Value (M)821,214.42858,879.73897,946.33
Shares Outstanding (M)2,719.552,719.552,719.55
Fair Value$301.97$315.82$330.18
Upside / Downside204.86%218.85%233.35%

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