Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk (DSNG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,082.65 - $29,998.06$28,112.58
Multi-Stage$4,169.52 - $4,566.52$4,364.36
Blended Fair Value$16,238.47
Current Price$1,650.00
Upside884.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.40%18.59%22.0030.0020.0012.334.939.879.874.934.9310.00
YoY Growth---26.67%50.00%62.16%150.00%-50.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%-50.66%150.00%
Dividend Yield--2.89%4.44%2.82%1.93%0.86%3.01%2.49%1.14%0.99%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,598,867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254,396.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319,773.40199,858.38119,915.03
Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.001,344,471.001,344,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-319,773.40-199,858.38-119,915.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,024,697.601,144,612.631,224,555.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
LTM Dividend per Share24.0024.0024.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend120.67131.98139.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11,082.65$28,112.58$29,998.06
Upside / Downside571.68%1,603.79%1,718.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,598,867.001,702,793.361,813,474.921,931,350.792,056,888.592,190,586.352,256,303.94
Payout Ratio15.91%30.73%45.55%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254,396.00523,248.20825,976.351,165,848.451,546,414.171,971,527.722,087,081.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)486,020.93490,627.76495,234.59
Year 2 PV (M)712,626.67726,200.21739,901.80
Year 3 PV (M)934,294.49961,114.73988,443.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,151,104.461,195,372.691,240,905.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,363,135.521,428,975.471,497,335.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,549,015.1541,459,247.3743,442,588.68
Equity Value (M)44,196,197.2246,261,538.2448,404,409.37
Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
Fair Value$4,169.52$4,364.36$4,566.52
Upside / Downside152.70%164.51%176.76%

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