Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Deere & Company (DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$534.03 - $1,990.10$896.00
Multi-Stage$340.70 - $372.26$356.20
Blended Fair Value$626.10
Current Price$461.63
Upside35.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.46%7.74%6.335.915.254.833.833.523.472.972.812.80
YoY Growth--7.17%12.47%8.68%26.25%8.79%1.38%17.03%5.47%0.35%-6.74%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.22%1.32%1.15%1.02%1.20%2.19%1.90%1.66%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,027.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,720.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,307.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,005.40628.38377.03
Cash Retained (M)3,307.003,307.003,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,005.40-628.38-377.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,301.602,678.632,929.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
LTM Dividend per Share6.336.336.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.8016.1917.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$534.03$896.00$1,990.10
Upside / Downside15.68%94.09%331.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,027.005,353.765,701.756,072.366,467.076,887.437,094.05
Payout Ratio34.22%45.37%56.53%67.69%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,720.002,429.123,223.154,110.155,098.836,198.686,561.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,219.342,240.372,261.41
Year 2 PV (M)2,690.482,741.732,793.46
Year 3 PV (M)3,134.603,224.583,316.27
Year 4 PV (M)3,552.793,689.423,829.96
Year 5 PV (M)3,946.154,136.754,334.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,008.5180,728.0584,589.94
Equity Value (M)92,551.8796,760.90101,125.68
Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
Fair Value$340.70$356.20$372.26
Upside / Downside-26.20%-22.84%-19.36%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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