Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.19 - $341.52$320.05
Multi-Stage$46.94 - $51.36$49.11
Blended Fair Value$184.58
Current Price$23.65
Upside680.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.09%6.46%0.820.540.490.100.040.140.130.120.090.29
YoY Growth--52.12%9.88%411.93%128.57%-70.38%6.12%8.89%35.54%-68.56%-34.41%
Dividend Yield--4.11%1.99%2.09%0.46%0.45%5.00%1.10%1.14%0.60%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,142.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,381.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,761.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)628.40392.75235.65
Cash Retained (M)1,761.001,761.001,761.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-628.40-392.75-235.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,132.601,368.251,525.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,829.661,829.661,829.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.750.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.750.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.19$320.05$341.52
Upside / Downside387.08%1,253.30%1,344.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,142.003,346.233,563.733,795.384,042.084,304.814,433.96
Payout Ratio43.95%53.16%62.37%71.58%80.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,381.001,778.932,222.762,716.783,265.623,874.334,101.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,650.671,666.321,681.97
Year 2 PV (M)1,913.801,950.251,987.05
Year 3 PV (M)2,170.492,232.802,296.29
Year 4 PV (M)2,420.872,513.972,609.73
Year 5 PV (M)2,665.052,793.772,927.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,069.1878,695.0582,459.69
Equity Value (M)85,890.0689,852.1693,962.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,829.661,829.661,829.66
Fair Value$46.94$49.11$51.36
Upside / Downside98.49%107.65%117.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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