Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Croma Security Solutions Group plc (CSSG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.91 - $4.20$2.75
Multi-Stage$1.43 - $1.56$1.49
Blended Fair Value$2.12
Current Price$0.83
Upside156.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.02%21.52%0.020.020.020.020.020.010.020.010.010.00
YoY Growth--4.64%-3.51%5.03%2.41%77.44%-35.18%184.27%5.95%42.37%31.11%
Dividend Yield--2.81%3.08%4.78%3.10%2.72%1.73%1.85%0.62%1.09%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.270.170.10
Cash Retained (M)0.710.710.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.27-0.17-0.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.450.540.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.6413.6413.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.91$2.75$4.20
Upside / Downside131.46%232.84%409.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.331.421.511.611.711.821.88
Payout Ratio46.50%55.20%63.90%72.60%81.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.620.780.961.171.391.641.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)0.700.710.72
Year 2 PV (M)0.780.800.81
Year 3 PV (M)0.860.880.91
Year 4 PV (M)0.920.960.99
Year 5 PV (M)0.981.031.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)15.2315.9716.73
Equity Value (M)19.4720.3421.23
Shares Outstanding (M)13.6413.6413.64
Fair Value$1.43$1.49$1.56
Upside / Downside73.06%80.74%88.71%

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