Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.20 - $630.39$551.38
Multi-Stage$82.13 - $89.73$85.86
Blended Fair Value$318.62
Current Price$44.49
Upside616.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.50%16.58%2.111.852.350.820.930.830.740.600.360.60
YoY Growth--13.83%-21.01%187.13%-12.02%11.88%11.59%24.76%65.17%-39.41%30.99%
Dividend Yield--4.76%3.56%6.27%2.11%4.79%8.71%3.99%3.01%1.65%3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,900.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,331.00831.88499.13
Cash Retained (M)1,900.001,900.001,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,331.00-831.88-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)569.001,068.131,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,099.522,099.522,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.510.67
LTM Dividend per Share2.262.262.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.510.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.772.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$174.20$551.38$630.39
Upside / Downside291.56%1,139.34%1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,655.007,087.587,548.278,038.908,561.439,117.939,391.46
Payout Ratio71.45%75.16%78.87%82.58%86.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,755.005,327.025,953.326,638.537,387.668,206.138,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,930.134,976.875,023.60
Year 2 PV (M)5,099.265,196.395,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)5,262.535,413.595,567.53
Year 4 PV (M)5,420.055,628.495,842.89
Year 5 PV (M)5,571.985,841.116,120.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)146,159.04153,218.58160,548.30
Equity Value (M)172,443.00180,275.03188,397.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,099.522,099.522,099.52
Fair Value$82.13$85.86$89.73
Upside / Downside84.61%93.00%101.69%

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