Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Combined Motor Holdings Limited (CMH.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.30 - $213.77$161.33
Multi-Stage$115.15 - $125.33$120.15
Blended Fair Value$140.74
Current Price$33.76
Upside316.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.84%12.04%3.193.833.902.331.011.741.741.601.391.29
YoY Growth---16.58%-1.78%67.23%130.81%-42.15%0.00%9.32%15.00%7.81%25.70%
Dividend Yield--10.29%14.17%13.58%8.32%6.51%9.48%8.31%6.11%6.80%9.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)677.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)477.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)135.5584.7250.83
Cash Retained (M)199.77199.77199.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-135.55-84.72-50.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.22115.05148.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.4775.4775.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.851.521.97
LTM Dividend per Share6.336.336.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.851.521.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.187.868.31
WACC / Discount Rate10.65%10.65%10.65%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Fair Value$122.30$161.33$213.77
Upside / Downside262.28%377.88%533.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)677.75715.08754.46796.01839.85886.11912.69
Payout Ratio70.53%74.42%78.32%82.21%86.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)477.98532.16590.86654.40723.16797.50844.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.65%10.65%10.65%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Year 1 PV (M)476.40480.96485.52
Year 2 PV (M)473.52482.62491.82
Year 3 PV (M)469.49483.10496.97
Year 4 PV (M)464.46482.49501.04
Year 5 PV (M)458.53480.89504.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,348.466,658.066,979.62
Equity Value (M)8,690.869,068.129,459.08
Shares Outstanding (M)75.4775.4775.47
Fair Value$115.15$120.15$125.33
Upside / Downside241.09%255.89%271.24%

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