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Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (CHG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.59 - $14.41$13.50
Multi-Stage$2.02 - $2.20$2.11
Blended Fair Value$7.80
Current Price$1.59
Upside390.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.96%9.21%0.070.090.260.060.050.050.030.040.040.03
YoY Growth---26.29%-62.76%325.25%19.93%0.00%56.26%-11.11%0.31%5.56%17.24%
Dividend Yield--4.12%3.23%7.04%1.55%1.71%2.38%1.66%1.87%1.44%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)770.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3499.5959.75
Cash Retained (M)26.7126.7126.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.34-99.59-59.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-132.63-72.88-33.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,999.0610,999.0610,999.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.59$13.50$14.41
Upside / Downside188.92%749.05%806.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.71848.50903.65962.391,024.941,091.561,124.31
Payout Ratio96.65%95.32%93.99%92.66%91.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)770.00808.77849.33891.74936.07982.411,039.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)749.95757.06764.17
Year 2 PV (M)730.28744.19758.23
Year 3 PV (M)710.98731.39752.18
Year 4 PV (M)692.05718.66746.03
Year 5 PV (M)673.48706.01739.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,610.9219,509.8420,443.16
Equity Value (M)22,167.6523,167.1324,203.55
Shares Outstanding (M)10,999.0610,999.0610,999.06
Fair Value$2.02$2.11$2.20
Upside / Downside26.76%32.47%38.40%

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